A ConocoPhillips chief analyst/strategist on Wednesday told an industry audience in Chicago that there will be no major hurricanes through the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) or elsewhere in the United States this year.

“We’re done with hurricanes,” said Jim Duncan at the end of his closing day keynote remarks at the LDC Gas Forum Mid-Continent in Chicago. Duncan cited a phenomenon called the “Omega Block” (large-scale patterns in atmospheric pressure) in the southeastern United States and a large amount of Sahara sands in the upper atmosphere that he said are preventing any likelihood of a major hurricane this year.

This is the first year since 2002 in which there were no Atlantic hurricanes through the month of August. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

Duncan said anything is theoretically possible, but “the situation is such this year that one is not going to form.

“The Gulf hasn’t been this hot since 2005, so the fuel and actual mechanics are there to start a hurricane, but it hasn’t happened.” The Pacific and Atlantic regions are usually exact opposites, he said. “The Pacific side has been very active, so conversely the Atlantic side has not been active.”

Duncan explained that sand from across North Africa was still present within the last few weeks, sucking up moist air and stopping hurricanes, which he calls “organized chaos,” from being able to form. “They need a massively disorganized organized system,” he said. In addition, the Omega Block shifts winds around the GOM, further lessening hurricane chances, he said.

There has been an increase in tropical activity since the beginning of the month, but energy interests in the GOM and along the Eastern Seaboard so far remain unscathed (see Daily GPI, Sept. 11).

While the consensus forecast has been for above-average tropical storm activity this year, forecasters have been moderating their pre-season predictions (see Daily GPI, Aug. 23). In a tropical forecast issued last month, Weather Services International Chief Meteorologist Todd Crawford pointed out that 70% of all named storms and 80% of all hurricanes in the past 10 years have occurred after Aug. 15, “so the heart of the season is still on the way.”

There was some activity in the GOM Friday, with the ninth Tropical Storm of the season, Ingrid, forming about 60 miles east-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said the storm, which packed maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, was moving West at about 2 mph and was expected to turn to the North-Northwest late Friday or Saturday. “Ingrid will be moving very close to the coast of Mexico during the next couple of days,” and is forecast to become less powerful after moving inland over Mexico in a few days, NHC said.

Humberto, which had been the season’s first hurricane, weakened to a Tropical Storm Friday and was still far from North America, about 765 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. NHC said it expected Humberto, which is packing maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, to continue moving toward the west-northwest, eventually moving into the North Atlantic and steering well clear of North America.

Closer to home, Gabrielle, the season’s on-again, off-again storm, was once again a Tropical Depression, located about 245 miles southeast of Nantucket, MA, and accelerating north-northeastward, NHC said. The storm had maximum sustained winds near 35 mph and was expected to dissipate by Friday night as it approached Nova Scotia.