Natural gas for delivery Friday rose a penny overall on average Thursday. Most traders elected to get their deals done ahead of the release of inventory data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and weakness at eastern and Northeast points was countered by strength in California and firm quotes in the Gulf Coast and Midcontinent.

The EIA reported an inventory gain of 58 Bcf, somewhat more than what traders were expecting, and prices fell. At the close, October natural gas was down 10.8 cents to $3.575 and November had fallen 10.1 cents to $3.666. October crude oil rose $1.14 to $108.37/bbl.

Expected mild temperatures along the Eastern Seaboard along with a weak power pricing environment was all it took to bring out the sellers. Wunderground.com forecast that Boston’s Thursday high of 73 would ease to 72 Friday before climbing to 82 on Saturday. The normal high in Boston is 76. New York City’s 79 degree high Thursday was predicted to ease to 73 on Friday before jumping back to 79 on Saturday. The normal high in New York for early September is 79. Philadelphia’s Thursday high of 79 was expected to slide to 70 on Friday before rising to 75 on Saturday. The seasonal high for Philadelphia is 78.

Kari Kiefer, Wunderground.com meteorologist, said, “A low pressure trough will just pass through the Northeast, but only scattered areas of showers will be possible from New York through Maine. This trough will also bring cooler air into the region.”

Weak next-day power prices also did not give Friday gas prices much of a leg to stand on. IntercontinentalExchange reported that power for delivery Friday at the New England Power Pool’s Massachusetts Hub fell $3.91 to $34.50/MWh and next-day peak power at the New York Independent System Operator’s Zone A delivery point in western New York fell $3.10 to $33.00/MWh. Peak power at PJM West was seen at $33.95, down $3.28/MWh.

Gas for delivery Friday at the Algonquin Citygates shed 12 cents to $3.78, and deliveries to Iroquois Waddington shed about 4 cents to $4.15. On Tennessee Zone 6 200 L, next-day gas was quoted at $3.71, down 10 cents.

Farther south, Friday gas prices were also a nickel to a dime lower. On Dominion gas for delivery Friday came in at $3.39, down 9 cents, and deliveries to Tetco M-3 shed 6 cents to $3.63. Gas bound for New York City on Transco Zone 6 fell 4 cents to $3.73.

California locations were flat to a nickel higher. PG&E Citygates for Friday delivery were quoted at a stout $4.11, up a penny, and at the SoCal Citygates next-day gas was also seen a penny higher at $4.06. Deliveries to SoCal Border points were a nickel higher at $4.01, and gas on El Paso S Mainline changed hands 5 cents higher at $4.08.

Next-day prices proved firm in the Midcontinent. At NGPL Midcontinent Pool packages for Friday delivery were seen 2 cents higher at $3.60, and gas on Panhandle was quoted about two cents higher at $3.54. Deliveries to Oklahoma Gas Transmission came in at $3.63, up 3 cents, and gas on NGPL TX OK rose 2 cents to $3.68.

Prices at Gulf Coast locations fluctuated around unchanged. On Transco Zone 3 Friday parcels rose by 1 cent to $3.69, and at the Henry Hub next-day gas added a penny to $3.69. On Tennessee 500 L gas was up a cent at $3.66, but on Florida Gas Transmission Zone 3 next-day gas dropped 5 cents to $3.83.

The 10:30 a.m. EDT release of storage data by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) gave analysts an idea if storage would reach average levels or make a run at last year’s record. Inventories currently stand at 3,188 Bcf, and injections for the eight weeks remaining until the traditional Oct. 31 end of the season need to average 72 Bcf weekly to attain the five-year average ending inventory of 3,776 Bcf and 92 Bcf weekly to reach the 2012 record ending inventory of 3,930 Bcf.

Analysts generally erred on the low side. ICAP Energy estimated the report would show a build of 53 Bcf, and First Enercast predicted an increase of 59 Bcf. Bentek Energy’s flow model anticipated a 54 Bcf injection. Last year, 33 Bcf was injected, and the five-year average stands at 60 Bcf.

Prior to the report’s release, the thinking was that industry estimates should be right on track. “Nothing in our tea leaves points to a surprise report this week coming out of EIA, but we have a sneaking suspicion the report will come in a wee bit lower than the consensus of 55 Bcf,” said John Sodergreen, editor of Energy Metro Desk (EMD). The EMD survey had a range of 51 Bcf to 60 Bcf, and Sodergreen himself estimates 51 Bcf, one of the survey’s low-ballers. “Our standard deviation at 2.6 Bcf is the lowest we’ve seen in more than eight weeks. Recall that last week’s report came in a wee bit higher than the market, so, this week, the editor thinks EIA might give up a few to get the balance back. And we may find that the heat last week sucked a lot more gas out of the mix than previously expected.”

At first glance, the four systems working in the tropical Atlantic look like they could be a threat to Gulf of Mexico production, but a closer look shows a minimal threat. At 2 p.m. EDT the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported that Tropical Storm Gabrielle was about 30 miles south southwest of the Dominican Republic with winds having weakened to 30 mph. It was moving to the northwest at 9 mph, and NHC projections had it headed into the Atlantic. The other three systems were given no more than a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next five days.

Market technicians acknowledge the recent advances but see clouds on the horizon for the bulls. “While natgas continues to maintain the upward sloping trend channel, we continue to see signs that warrant a defensive stance,” said Brian LaRose, analyst at United ICAP. “As such, our recommendation remains unchanged, short-term traders [should] work a protective sell stop below the 0.236 retracement of the move up from $3.129, currently $3.564. Anticipate stiff resistance into the $3.680-3.780-3.830 vicinity,” he said in comments to clients.