With the natural gas market awaiting the latest government storage figures, and with the weather outlook mostly unchanged overnight, futures were trading close to even early Thursday. The June Nymex contract was off 1.8 cents to $1.851/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET.

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Estimates have been pointing to a near-average injection from the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest weekly storage report, scheduled for 10:30 a.m. ET. A Bloomberg survey of six analysts produced a range of 64 Bcf to 76 Bcf, with a median of 71 Bcf. A Reuters poll of 17 market participants had injections ranging from 59 Bcf to 80 Bcf. NGI also modeled an 80 Bcf build.

Last year, EIA recorded a 114 Bcf injection for the similar week, and the five-year average is a build of 74 Bcf.

“It was cooler than normal over the Northeast, while comfortable to warm over the rest of the U.S.” during this week’s report period, according to NatGasWeather. “Our algorithm predicts a build of 75 Bcf, to the bearish side.”

The latest EIA report, which reflects data recorded during the week ending April 24, could provide “an important test for the market,” according to analysts at EBW Analytics Group.

Coming off of Wednesday’s sell-off for the June contract, “the recent track record suggests that natural gas futures could climb back up,” but “this time could prove to be different,” the EBW analysts said. “Recognition is growing that demand has fallen more sharply than many analysts initially predicted.”

This coincides with “high risk” to liquefied natural gas exports and storage injections that “could reach startling levels soon.”

Regarding EIA’s report, “we expect a build in the mid-70s. With a monster injection expected next week, if today’s build is in this range, futures could drop significantly again today.”

As for the overnight weather data, NatGasWeather noted heating degree day (HDD) gains from both the American and European models.

“However, gains in HDD this late in the season just don’t have the same impact on demand compared to core winter months,” the forecaster said. “As such, no major changes, as light national demand is expected through the weekend, followed by cooler air sweeping across much of the U.S. next week, including easing early season heat over Texas and the South as highs drop from the 80s and 90s into the 70s and 80s.”

NatGasWeather also highlighted a “rather bearish pattern” for the May 11-16 period, with “weak cool shots” expected to continue across the northern part of the country as cooling “also pushes at times into the southern U.S., preventing widespread heat from building. To our view, if temperature-driven demand is to be added, the natural gas markets likely prefer hotter trends instead of cooler ones.”

June crude oil futures were up $1.90 to $16.96/bbl at around 8:45 a.m. ET, while May RBOB gasoline was up about 4.6 cents to around 77.3 cents/gal.