With the market coming off a volatile day of trading and preparing to turn its attention to the latest government storage data, natural gas futures pared their recent gains early Thursday. The May Nymex contract was off 4.0 cents to $1.899/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET.

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Coming off a string of bearish misses, the majority of analyst expectations has coalesced around a build in the high 30 Bcf to low 40 Bcf range from this week’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report, scheduled for 10:30 a.m. ET.

A Bloomberg survey showed estimates ranging from 32 Bcf to 51 Bcf, with a median build of 44 Bcf. A Wall Street Journal poll of 12 analysts saw projections as low as 11 Bcf, though the survey produced an average build of 38 Bcf. A Reuters survey ranged from 11 Bcf to 55 Bcf, with a median injection of 39 Bcf. NGI pegged the build at 51 Bcf.

This would compare with last year’s 92 Bcf injection and the five-year 49 Bcf build, according to EIA.

“It was colder than normal over most of the U.S., while warmer than normal over the West Coast and Florida” during this week’s EIA report period, according to NatGasWeather. “Our algorithm predicts a build of 46-47 Bcf, to the bearish side.”

Predicting this week’s EIA figure comes with “considerable accounting challenges due to Good Friday/Easter, impacts from Covid-19 lockdowns and a huge decline in oil and gas rigs over the past month.”

Analysts at EBW Analytics Group predicted an injection of 37 Bcf for this week’s EIA report, which covers the week ended April 17. The market, which has seen “sky high” volatility recently, could “take its cue” from where the print lands compared to expectations, they said.

The “extreme volatility” observed in Wednesday’s session “is due in part to computer-driven technical trading,” the EBW analysts said. “It also reflects, however, two powerful conflicting forces affecting the market.

“The collapse of oil prices earlier this week suggests oil storage is nearly full, potentially leading to massive shut-ins of oil and associated gas output that could drive natural gas prices up sharply. It is not yet clear, however, if these declines will arrive soon enough or be large enough to outweigh steep losses in demand due to Covid-19, creating potential opportunities for bears.”

Still, analysts at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) have estimated a relatively modest natural gas demand impact from the pandemic so far.

“Our dissection of the demand data shows a Covid-19 related impact of just around 0.3 Bcf/d across the big three demand drivers” of power, industrial and residential/commercial, the TPH analysts said in a note to clients early Thursday. The data suggest “gas is being largely insulated by coal, which is taking the brunt of the demand hit.”

As for the overnight forecasts, NatGasWeather noted degree day losses from both the American and European weather models, which showed less cold air moving into the Great Lakes and Northeast and less heat in the southern part of the country.

“The theme the next 15 days is for weak cooling across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and northeast, but getting unseasonably hot with 90s and 100s into the Southwest,” the forecaster said.

June crude oil futures were up $2.95 to $16.73/bbl at around 8:45 a.m. ET, while May RBOB gasoline was trading about 7.6 cents higher at around 71.5 cents/gal.