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The 2019-2023 business plan of Mexican national oil company Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) presents an unrealistic picture of production growth and reserves replenishment over the coming years, according to a new report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

"Current plans focus on areas where the company has had better success rates in the past," the IMF said Tuesday in the full report on its 2019 Article IV mission to Mexico.

"This strategy will likely lead to some short-term production gains, but the 60% increase in production by 2024 – to 2.7 million b/d – currently projected by Pemex appears optimistic."

The IMF had published some of the mission’s preliminary findings in October.

The business plan earmarks nearly all of Pemex’s exploration and production capital expenditure for shallow water and onshore conventional plays, and eschews risk-sharing partnerships with the private sector in favor of oilfield services contracts.

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