Both natural gas futures and physical markets bounced back Monday after posting discounts heading into the weekend, with prices getting a boost from lingering September heat and demand impacts from former Hurricane Florence that proved less extensive than previously predicted. The NGI National Spot Gas Average picked up 18 cents on the day to $2.72/MMBtu.

The October Nymex futures contract settled at $2.814 Monday, gaining 4.7 cents to just about cancel out Friday’s 5.0 cent sell-off. Gains were less pronounced further along the strip. The November contract added 2.8 cents to $2.779, while January settled at $2.952, up only 1.8 cents on the day.

Bespoke Weather Services pointed to the “very strong cash prices” Monday to help explain the rally in the front month contract.

“Hurricane Florence demand destruction was not quite as bad as anticipated, and combined with significant short-term heat it was enough to keep physical prices firm,” Bespoke Weather Services said. “Yet today’s move seemed to be canceling out the overreaction” to Florence’s potential impacts in Friday’s trading, “and we now struggle to see what the upward catalyst would be to move prices above resistance around $2.85 given production back at record highs.”

Gas-weighted degree days should come in slightly above average the next two weeks, “but weather becomes far less of a bullish catalyst, and Week 3 forecasts are likely to warm and limit heating demand,” the firm said. “With the front of the strip so bid this could easily hit the October contract, especially if cash prices were to fall back a bit more. Lingering cash strength” Tuesday or Wednesday “could have us test $2.85, but risk is lower to $2.75 this week.”

Most of the observed natural gas demand destruction from Florence centered around power demand in North Carolina, according to Genscape Inc. analyst Josh Garcia.

“Demand in Virginia and the Carolinas has already begun recovering, with aggregate sample demand up about 240 MMcf/d day/day from the low of 3.42 Bcf/d on Saturday,” Garcia said Monday. “Prior to Florence’s arrival, aggregate demand had averaged 4.40 Bcf/d and maxed at 4.86 Bcf/d.”

As of 10 a.m. ET Monday, the Edison Electric Institute (EEI) reported that about 504,000 customers were still without power in the aftermath of Florence’s landfall late last week, with the outages concentrated in North Carolina.

“Crews are working around the clock to restore power where it is safe and conditions allow. Impacted electric companies are reporting that they already have restored power to more than one million customers since the storm began,” EEI said. Still, “some of the most challenging restoration work remains ahead in currently inaccessible coastal areas that experienced massive flooding and structural damage.”

Meanwhile, U.S. nuclear capacity outages totaled 14.4 GW Monday, exceeding the 10.6 GW max of the comparable five-year range for that date (Sept. 17), according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

EIA data showed Duke Energy’s 1.87 GW Brunswick plant — directly in Florence’s wake in North Carolina — was still 100% offline Monday. Duke’s 2.316 GW McGuire plant, also in North Carolina, was operating at 50% capacity Monday, according to EIA.

Midday guidance Monday maintained a warmer outlook for the back half of September that emerged over the weekend, according to NatGasWeather.

The coming pattern looks especially warm “across the southeastern U.S.,” with several more cooling degree days “since late last week,” the firm said. “Much of the northern U.S. is also expected to be warmer than normal, although for this time of the year this means mostly comfortable conditions with highs of 70s to lower 80s for very light heating or cooling needs.”

For the rest of September, weather-driven demand will come from “the southern U.S. remaining in the 80s to 90s, locally 100s over Southwest deserts.”

Spot price gains were widespread Monday, with most regions rebounding after deals for weekend and Monday delivery had solicited tepid buyer interest across much of the Lower 48.

East Coast points posted double-digit gains, including Transco Zone 6 New York, which jumped 44 cents to $3.08 after dropping 19 cents on Friday. Further south, Transco Zone 5 added 29 cents to $3.12 after giving up 10 cents in trading Friday.

“Remnants from Florence will bring areas of heavy showers across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast” Monday and Tuesday, NatGasWeather said. “In the cyclone’s wake, very warm high pressure will follow where highs of 90s will gain ground across the southern U.S., with upper 70s and 80s over the Ohio Valley and east-central U.S., combining for slightly stronger than normal late summer demand.

Further upstream in Appalachia, Dominion South gained 34 cents to $2.56, while Transco-Leidy Line added 39 cents to match its 30-day high at $2.64.

As of Monday afternoon, Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Co. (Transco) was still working to secure approval from FERC to start up the greenfield portion of its Atlantic Sunrise expansion in northeastern Pennsylvania. Transco had previously targeted Sept. 10 to bring on the remaining capacity of the 1.7 million Dth/d Appalachian takeaway line, but later said it would not hit that goal due to delays in construction.

Transco, supplementing an earlier in-service request, said last week it expected the project’s facilities to be “mechanically complete, backfilled and ready for service” as soon as Monday, pending “completion of hydrostatic testing and caliper pig runs on Central Penn Line South and Unity Loop.”

Since Transco filed last month’s in-service request, “restoration and clean-up activities have not progressed at the rate previously forecasted due to a series of inclement weather events,” the operator told the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. “Nevertheless, Transco has made significant progress on cleanup and restoration while also successfully managing environmental compliance during this period of heavy storm activity.”

Potentially complicating matters for Transco, the National Weather Service had a flash flood watch in effect for central Pennsylvania Monday as Florence was expected to continue to produce heavy rain over parts of the Mid-Atlantic this week.

Most areas in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia were expecting about one-to-two inches of rain through Tuesday, according to the NWS. While flooding still posed dangers in some parts of the region, a spokesman for the West Virginia Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management said on Monday that the storm was moving out of the state.

Farther north in southwest Pennsylvania, Range Resources Corp. spokesman Michael Mackin said one of Appalachia’s largest gas producers wasn’t anticipating any impacts at this point.

Last week’s storm “dumped roughly five-to-six inches of rain on us here in southwestern Pennsylvania, which sounds like it was a lot more than is being called for in our region from the remnants of the coming storm, and we thankfully did not have any impacts to our operations,” during last week’s rainfall, he said.

Other pipeline and processing operators in the area shared few concerns, noting that they have comprehensive plans in place for severe weather events that aren’t likely to be needed.

However, the ground was so wet in western Pennsylvania last week that Energy Transfer Partners LP said a landslide likely caused part of its Revolution gathering system in Beaver County to slip and explode. There were no injuries. But the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission said wet weather was complicating the investigation.

Elsewhere, prices rallied across the Midwest as Radiant Solutions was forecasting much above normal temperatures throughout much of the region over the next several days. Highs in Chicago were expected to hover in the 80s until Friday, reaching as high as 87 on Thursday, according to Radiant.

Chicago Citygate surged 19 cents to $2.89.

Prices also climbed in California and the Desert Southwest. El Paso S. Maline/N. Baja jumped 56 cents to $2.72, while SoCal Border Average added 30 cents to $2.48. The import-constrained SoCal Citygate picked up 30 cents to $4.02.

In an update on its Line 3000 maintenance work last week, Southern California Gas said as of Monday it would be adding 270 MMcf/d of capacity through its Topock receipt point in its Northern Zone.

“The outage of Line 235 and the restricted operation of Line 4000 will continue to limit the capacity of the Needles/Topock Area Zone to 270 MMcf/d, and the total Northern Zone capacity will remain at 870 MMcf/d,” the utility told shippers.