September natural gas was set to open Monday about 1.0 cents lower at around $2.907/MMBtu with potential long-range cooling adding bearish pressure on a market already weighed down by record production.

The October contract, set to take over as the front month this week, was trading about 1.1 cents lower at around $2.902.

Weather models over the weekend maintained the heat from Friday’s forecast but advertised cooler risks toward the end of the 11-15 day outlook, according to Bespoke Weather Services.

While the next two weeks generally show gas-weighted degree days (GWDD) coming in “solidly above average,” the latest forecast “increases confidence in a gradual pattern shift into the middle of September and Week 3, meaning on net if anything we see current weather forecasts as a bit less supportive of natural gas than they were most of last week.

“The September natural gas contract is down slightly this morning on production again sitting near record highs and balances that otherwise do not impress much with weather cooling slightly over the weekend,” Bespoke said. “That said, we are concerned that significant heat the next couple of days could elevate cash prices relative to what we saw at the end of last week, which could put a morning bounce back towards $2.95-2.96 in play.”

Friday’s sell-off may have signaled that natural gas bulls are ready to give in with the end of summer approaching, according to EBW Analytics Group CEO Andy Weissman.

“Before last Friday, the September natural gas contract inched higher for much of August” thanks to “repeated bullish weather forecasts shifts,” but on Friday, “this march higher came to an abrupt halt, with the front month contract suffering its biggest single-day loss since late June,” Weissman said. “Notably, this sell-off occurred on a day when weather forecasts were largely unchanged.

“The big move downward suggests that, with air conditioning demand likely to fall sharply by mid-September,” and with additional takeaway capacity out of the Northeast coming online in the near-term, “bulls decided it was time to throw in the towel,” he said. “The most likely scenario is that futures will continue to slide for the rest of this month and all or most of September.”

Gaithersburg, MD-based forecaster Radiant Solutions noted cooler adjustments to its latest six- to 10-day and 11-15 day outlooks Monday. In the six- to 10-day, cooler trends were “focused in the Northwest but with small adjustments across the Midwest and East as well. Overall, this remains a warmer than normal period across the Eastern Half where above and much above normal temperatures are common.”

The 11-15 day forecast “features a small cool change along the Northern Tier,” compared to Sunday’s and Friday’s outlooks, with the period expected to remain “broadly warmer than normal” overall.

October crude oil was set to open about 4 cents higher at around $68.76/bbl, while September RBOB gasoline was trading fractionally higher at around $2.0830/gal.