August natural gas futures were set to open Thursday about 0.7 cents higher at around $2.782/MMBtu, with the market turning its attention to upcoming weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage data that could once again show a below-average injection.

Estimates for the report, set to release at 10:30 a.m. ET, point to a lean build that would grow the year-on-five-year deficit for the third straight week, as summer heat has kept stockpiles in check despite record-level production.

A Bloomberg survey showed traders and analysts expecting a median 36 Bcf injection for the week ended July 20, with a range of 28 Bcf to 52 Bcf. IAF Advisors analyst Kyle Cooper called for a 30 Bcf injection, while Intercontinental Exchange EIA Financial Weekly Index futures settled Wednesday at an injection of 25 Bcf.

Last year, EIA recorded a 19 Bcf injection, while the five-year average is a build of 46 Bcf. Last week’s report covering the week ended July 13 missed to the bullish side of estimates at 46 Bcf, widening the stubborn year-on-five-year deficit to well over 500 Bcf.

In recent weeks, the market has shown a tendency to shrug off the weekly storage number, with prices sometimes rising on a seemingly bearish report or falling when injections have missed to the low side, EBW Analytics Group CEO Andy Weissman said.

“This week seems to be different,” he said. “Natural gas futures surged Wednesday, largely in response to the potential that today’s reported injection might be below 30 Bcf. The consensus forecast is for a reported injection of 35-36 Bcf this morning. A number of well respected prognosticators, however, are predicting injections between 23 Bcf and 30 Bcf.

“If this morning’s reported injection is less than 30 Bcf, the August gas contract might test resistance as high as $2.80-2.84,” Weissman said. “With milder weather on the horizon, though, we still expect futures to retest contract lows during the first half of August and to decline further later in the month.”

As for the latest weather outlook, Radiant Solutions noted “a small change in the cooler direction in the South” in its latest six- to 10-day forecast Thursday, while Southern California trended hotter.

“A trough is over the Midcontinent at the start of the period and is expected to slowly track southward, moderating as it does so,” the firm said. “Below normal temperatures accompany this feature, and there remains additional cool risk based on the models. Farther north, the forecast is near normal in the Midwest…The West and New England remain the focus for aboves through this period.”

Radiant’s 11-15 day outlook Wednesday “holds onto similar pattern themes as the previous outlook, averaging near normal with temperatures in the Midwest and South, while the West and Northeast favor aboves.”

September crude oil was set to open about 4 cents lower at around $69.26/bbl, while August RBOB gasoline was trading fractionally higher at around $2.1263/gal.