August natural gas futures were set to open Wednesday near even at around $2.746/MMBtu as forecasters noted generally minor adjustments to the weather outlook overnight.

The major weather models overnight carried a mix of changes but maintained the overall pattern of “mostly comfortable” temperatures sweeping through the Midwest and east-central United States over the next two weeks, according to NatGasWeather.

“We continue to look toward the last couple days of July into early August for the next opportunity for more intimidating heat to return across the east-central U.S., which more data would still need to come on board with if the markets are to believe it,” the firm said.

“…To our view, today will be an interesting day to see if prices are able to hold recent support” before Thursday’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report, “where deficits are likely to increase slightly to near 525 Bcf as it’s favored to come in just under the five-year average of 62 Bcf. To illustrate how strong production has become, the same weather pattern last year would have resulted in a build nearly 30 Bcf lighter” than the injection expected in the report.

Radiant Solutions reported similar themes in both its six- to 10-day and 11-15 day forecasts Wednesday.

The six- to 10-day period trended “only slightly cooler in the Rockies. Otherwise, anomalous heat remains favored from the West toward Texas, where the more intense heat is focused in the early half and only fading slightly in intensity late,” Radiant said. “A pair of disturbances deepen a trough over the Great Lakes as the period progresses, with the feature helping to pull down a cooler Canadian air mass toward the Midwest during the second half of the period.”

In the 11-15 day period, “near normal temperatures are expected in the Eastern Half, while aboves remain the favored solution from the West toward Texas,” the firm said.

EBW Analytics Group CEO Andy Weissman said he expects gas prices to trade in a narrow range in the near-term.

“With hot weather continuing, power sector use of natural gas is expected to remain near this summer’s peak for the next two weeks,” Weissman said. “This could keep cash market prices close to current levels.”

However, by the first week of August, “demand should start tapering off and then fall rapidly” later in the month, he said. “As this occurs, prices are likely to fall further, with the forward curve losing another 10-15 cents by mid-August.”

From a technical standpoint, in trading Tuesday prices “inched a little closer” to a major support area at $2.723 listed by Rafferty Commodities Group.

The $2.723 support level “held earlier in the spring, and then the market was able to test the $3.000 area before consolidating for weeks,” the firm told clients. “The recent breakdown from the $2.885 area earlier in the month that left us focused on $2.723 reveals the symmetry in the market since May.”

At that time, “the market held the $2.723 area then broke above $2.885 before running into resistance around $3.000. Now the pattern has come full circle as the market has reversed course and has gravitated back” toward $2.723.

August crude oil was set to open about 44 cents lower at around $67.64/bbl, while August RBOB gasoline was trading fractionally lower at around $2.0182/gal.