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Weather Models In Disagreement; November Seen 4 Cents Lower

November natural gas is set to open 4 cents lower Wednesday morning at $2.93 as overnight weather models run into conflicts over forecast cooling. Overnight oil markets were mixed.

"Cold air now peaks in the one-to-five day period with the six-to-10 day being a period of transition as cold looks to gradually become more confined to the far northern tier," said MDA Weather Services in its morning report to clients. "However, cold air does linger early with belows/much belows in the Midwest and South at the onset.

"Significant model disagreement limits confidence as the GFS comes in at +18 [gas-weighted heating degree days] colder than the Euro. The GFS seems overaggressive with the cold; however, the forecast is not as warm as the Euro in the eastern half in the latter part of the period. Aboves are noted in California and the Southwest while the Northwest cools late."

In its Early View assessment of the week's storage report The Desk survey of 13 traders and analysts showed an average 65 Bcf. This is good news for storage bulls inasmuch as last year 74 Bcf was injected and the five-year average comes in at 75 Bcf. The range on the survey was a tight 62 Bcf to 69 Bcf.

Tom Saal, vice president at FCStone Latin America LLC in his work with Market Profile expects the market to test Tuesday's value area at $2.983 to $2.969. Market Profile is a breakout trading system and Saal notes an initial balance of $3.010 to $2.948 from which trading objectives higher at $3.041 and lower at $2.917 are the week's trading goals. Beyond that Saal notes value areas at $2.906 to $2.862 and $3.188 to $3.158 but is not certain in what order they are likely to be tested.

In overnight Globex trading the December crude oil contract fell 21 cents to $52.26/bbl and December RBOB gasoline rose a penny to $1.6809/gal.

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