November natural gas is set to open 6 cents higher Tuesday morning at $3.01 as weather models insert cooler temperatures in the latter stages of the near-term forecast. Overnight oil markets rose.
Analysts see the traditional end of the injection season leaving inventories right at the five-year average. "With just 14 days left in the traditional summer injection season, storage levels remain close to the five-year average," said Callie Kolbe, analyst with PointLogic Energy. "Early storage expectations for the current work week ending October 20 point to another fairly average build between 72-82 Bcf. The prior five-year average build for the week is a 75 Bcf injection. A build between 72-82 Bcf would keep current inventories slightly below the prior five-year average for the week.”
She added that over the next three report weeks (which includes this week's report for the week ended October 13), their forecasts total 222 Bcf in net injections, leaving storage at 3,817 Bcf for the last week in October. By comparison, the prior five-year average for the comparable last three weeks in the summer season is a total of 213 Bcf and an inventory of 3,816 Bcf.
Overnight weather models cooled.
"The forecast sees a modest change in the cooler direction in this period, with this being a result of model trends in further deepening a trough over the Eastern Half in the mid to late period," said MDA Weather Services in its morning six- to 10-day outlook.
"There remains still cooler risks as well based on the GFS Ensembles and operational guidance from both the GFS and the Euro, but the Pacific origins of a cooler air mass left behind the trough has the forecast only fading the intensity of the composite's broad warmth with a late period round of normals into the Midwest. The West features a small warm adjustment, with southern California in particular having near record heat."
Tom Saal, vice president at FCStone Latin America in Miami in his work with Market Profile expects the market to test Monday's value area at $2.946 to $2.924. It "should test" $3.022 to $3.002 or $2.858 to $2.834, but Saal said he was "not sure in what order."
In overnight Globex trading November crude oil rose 24 cents to $52.11/bbl and November RBOB gasoline gained a penny to $1.6284/gal.