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Small Changes to Weather Models; August Called 2 Cents Lower

August natural gas is set to open 2 cents lower Monday morning at $2.76 as traders note little change in the weather or other market developments. Overnight oil markets fell.

Weather forecasts changed little overnight, with just slight differences in details. Commodity Weather Group in its Monday morning report said, "Overnight models edged warmer for the Midwest in the six-10 day with mixed changes in the 11-15 day. The main story holds with this week seeing the hottest weather of the forecast period across the Midwest and East before we see a transition toward mainly Western heat and Midwest to East cooling tendencies.

"The one change we saw [Sunday] morning continues today with lingering modest warmth on the East Coast this weekend into Monday (early half of six-10 day), but the European guidance is maintaining this concept the most as both the American and Canadian ensemble prefer a near-normal East Coast six-10 day.

"The West is not quite as hot today in the six-10 as forecast back on Friday, and the Deep South is also slightly cooler from Friday (Dallas finally hits its first 100 F of the season yesterday). The end of the 11-15 day shows some variability to watch, but the CFS [Climate Forecast System] keeps the cool pattern going deep into August," said Matt Rogers, president of the firm.

Mike DeVooght, president of DEVO Capital, a Colorado-based trading and risk management firm, is taking a neutral market stance for now. "On a trade basis, it's difficult to make a case for a significant move, either up or down, in the gas market at this time. We will continue to stand aside and await future developments."

DeVooght recommends that trading accounts, end-users, and producers await further developments before entering the market.

Tom Saal, vice president at FC Stone Latin America LLC in Miami, in his work with Market Profile expects the market to test last week's value area at $2.915 to $2.825 and then test $2.762 to $2.670, and "eventually" test $3.103 to $3.007. "Only participating traders can determine natural gas futures market value, everyone else are just spectators," he said in a Monday morning note to clients.

In overnight Globex trading September crude oil fell 65 cents to $47.49/bbl and September RBOB gasoline lost a penny and-a-half to $1.7673/gal.

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