The April Nymex contract slipped 2.7 cents to $2.338 onThursday, as traders continue to limit trading to small rangesahead of the expiration of the April contract at 3:10 EST latertoday. April remains several cents above $2.30 despite Henry Hubcash prices that are currently a nickel cheaper

One trader said if history is any indication, April likely willslip to meet those lower cash prices. “Eighty percent of the time,if a contract moves lower its second to last day of trading, itwill continue moving lower its final day, and vice-versa. Ofcourse, the wildcard in this tends to be the last hour, andspecifically, the last five minutes of trading (before a contractexpires). If there are a ton of open positions still left on theboard, then there may be a chance for a short squeeze or aliquidation

“However, I don’t think that’s going to happen. The lowvolatility of recent weeks and resulting stable price movementshave given people ample opportunities to get out of their Aprilpositions. Most speculators should also be out already, since theydidn’t carry that many open positions in April to begin with. Ithink we are going to see a nice, controlled expiration day,” hepredicted

For that to happen, April will likely have to remain within itsrecent trading range of $2.295 to $2.355. If April moves above thisrange, look for secondary resistance levels at $2.375 and $2.40, atechnician said

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