The April Nymex contract lost yet another chance to break out ofits recent trading range by falling 3.8-cents to settle Thursday at$2.134. “If April were ever going to break out of its tradingrange, perhaps today was the day,” a trader told GPI. “April brokeabove major resistance at $2.19, and forecasts are calling foranother potential cold front next week. Yet April fell hard afterreaching a high of $2.205. That tells me there is no wayspeculators are buying into the fact that fundamentals warrant ahigher move. It also shows they are wary of initiating fresh longpositions,” he said.

Traders will likely get a good idea of what speculators will doin the near future today, after the Commodities & FuturesTrading Commission (CFTC) releases its latest Commitment of TradersReport. Two weeks ago, speculators were net long by roughly 10,000contracts, so “it will be interesting to see how long they are now,if they are even long at all,” a source said. If speculators arestill long, it will be even harder for April to rise significantlyabove $2.19, because those speculators will eventually have to getout of their positions, he continued.

If April continues lower it will face immediate support at$2.105, followed by $2.05, a technician told GPI.

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