Triple-digit plunges continued at Northeast citygates Wednesday, and unlike a day earlier they were joined by declines spreading across the board. Several sections of the market were due to get a bit more reprieve Thursday from frigid conditions previously, although lows in the teens and 20s were still in the forecast from the Rockies through the Midwest, and sub-zero readings were expected in Alberta and parts of the Upper Plains.

Losses ranged from about C5 cents at Empress and NOVA Inventory Transfer (Calgary was due to see low-end temperatures more than 10 below zero Thursday while Edmonton would get even colder) to nearly $2.25. Other than the Northeast, declines were limited to nearly 35 cents.

February futures began their prompt-month reign on the soft side by dropping 13.1 cents (see related story).

Although it might be expected that an expected New Year’s Day onslaught of arctic weather causing a deep-freeze across much of the North American market could be expected to revive cash prices Thursday, at least a couple of sources weren’t so sure.

The Midwest market saw prices drop even with forecasts of lows in the teens, but it wasn’t so surprising to see the Gulf Coast/Northeast weakness with the South remaining relatively moderate for at least one more day and the Northeast not likely to get below freezing in most cases. Outside the Rockies and Western Canada, most of the West was expected to be chilly to cool.

The outlook for the recent general bullishness of prices going forward got stronger Wednesday after AccuWeather.com reinforced the perception that much of the U.S. will experience a colder-than-normal January, which could last into winter (see related story).

The shifting pattern of off-and-on pipeline constraints was continuing (see related story).

Noting a Kern River bulletin board reference to low linepack “due primarily to problems with supply point operators,” a Rockies producer said it wasn’t cold enough to blame wellhead freezeoffs for that. It needs to get down to zero or so for several days for very cold weather to impact a wellhead, he said. He thought it more likely that a shortfall of supply from the Opal Plant due to problems with the Moxa Booster unit likely was more responsible (plant operator Williams Field Services said Wednesday it had not yet determined when the Moxa unit would return to service).

“We don’t know what’s going on,” said a Midcontinent producer. OGT prices were relatively strong late, he said, but he suspected that was largely due to imbalance make-up gas going to the pipeline. His company sold into OGT at $5.69, and then “looked bad” when they saw a $5.83 price posted not much later.

He was among the ones dubious about a cash price rally due to both Nymex getting weaker in late trading Wednesday and the extra loss of industrial load during a holiday weekend. And although January is traditionally the year’s highest-demand month, he tended to dismiss the continuing cold forecasts somewhat because storage withdrawals “likely will be at full throttle” during the month. Also, he knew a fellow Midcontinent producer “whose cutoff price [for shutting in] is $5.50” (easily exceeded in the Midcontinent despite Wednesday’s price drops), so he would not be surprised to see some shut-in production coming back online.

The producer said he found plenty of ready buyers for January baseload gas, and is looking for first-of-month index increases of a dollar or more.

The coastal area of the Northeast should be getting much colder again soon, a regional utility buyer said, but conditions should not be quite as severe this weekend in his inland service area. Despite noticing a “lot of purple” (indicating extra-cold areas) on The Weather Channel temperature maps, he also wasn’t sure whether the weather could rally the cash market Thursday. The long holiday weekend might temper the cold effect, he said, because a lot of businesses being shut down will cut demand a lot.

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