The general weather moderation in most areas had proven puzzling Tuesday when most points rose a few cents, but it appeared that logical behavior had returned to the market Wednesday as prices fell across the board. The previous day’s futures decline of 1.1 cent, while minuscule, was an added slightly bearish factor in the cash market.

Losses were approximately evenly divided between single and double digits in ranging from 2-3 cents to about 15 cents. The largest dips were concentrated in the Northeast, where temperatures will be peaking in the 50s Thursday at quite a few locations.

The screen was a bit short on next-day support for cash numbers in the first two days of the week, but April futures finally managed a rally of 4.3 cents Wednesday (see related story), which will provide a modest amount of backing for physical traders Thursday.

It appears that the last large storage withdrawal of the season may be reported Thursday, with several analysts’ estimates centered around the mid 110s Bcf. The relatively mild conditions that have pervaded much of the U.S. this week and are expected to continue into the end of the month make it unlikely that any upcoming pulls will come close to 100 Bcf, much less surpass it.

Storms predicted in the South are not expected to erase spring-like conditions for the most part, although some locations such as Little Rock, AR, can expect to see both highs and lows dropping by more than five degrees from Wednesday to Thursday. Chilly but generally seasonable temperatures will remain in effect for the Midwest and Northeast, although parts of the Midwest and Upper Plains will still be experiencing modest snowfalls, according to The Weather Channel.

Lows around freezing or lower will stay confined to the Rockies and much of Canada for a while longer. The rest of the West is due to continue experiencing cool to chilly conditions.

Columbia Gas in Appalachia reflected the significant turnaround in market dynamics, racking up 852,500 MMBtu in trading volumes Tuesday on IntercontinentalExchange, but that dropped to 682,500 MMBtu Wednesday. Prices into Columbia dropped a little more than a dime Wednesday.

Specifying that it’s an “iffy” situation, a Midwest marketer said there is a chance that Wednesday’s screen rally combined with slightly colder forecasts in some locations, such as several in his own region, may be able to keep cash numbers near flat if not boost them a little Thursday.

The National Weather Service (NWS) predicts below-normal temperatures during the March 15-19 workweek everywhere south of a line running roughly westward from the southern ends of New Jersey and Pennsylvania to the southern third of Missouri before curving to the southwest to include most of Oklahoma and Texas. In its six- to 10-day forecast posted Tuesday afternoon, NWS looks for above-normal readings everywhere west of eastern New Mexico and Colorado along with everywhere north and west of a mostly horizontal line through southern Nebraska and Iowa, northern Illinois and western Michigan. Its forecast also calls for above-normal temperatures in northern New England.

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