Up to 3 Bcf/d of Gulf natural gas production that is currently shut in could remain offline during the winter heating season, a top official with the American Gas Association (AGA) said Tuesday.

If correct, that would mean that approximately half of the 6 Bcf/d of Gulf gas production that the Interior Department estimates is still shut in would continue to be out of commission during the winter months.

Still the AGA, which represents gas utilities, believes inventories of natural gas will be adequate to meet demand this winter, said Paul Wilkinson, AGA’s vice president of policy analysis, at a press briefing in Washington, DC. He projects that gas in storage will be at or near 3.2 Tcf by Nov. 1, a level that is considered comfortable by the gas industry to satisfy winter demand.

Natural gas in storage was estimated at 2.93 Tcf for the week ended Sept. 30, which was 151 less than last year at this time, but 40 Bcf above the five-year average. The winter heating season starts in less than three weeks.

The AGA called the briefing to “get out in front” of the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) annual winter fuels outlook, which is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, a spokeswoman for the group said.

The AGA expects the EIA to forecast that natural gas heating bills for most U.S. households will be up 50% over last year, noted Roger Cooper, executive vice president of policy and planning for the utility group. The price hike could be even more dramatic in the Midwest — 70% or more — if the upcoming winter weather is colder than normal, he said.

The group estimates that the average heating bill for residential customers likely will be $1,000 during the 2004-2005 heating season, compared to approximately $650 last winter.

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