Flat to slightly lower quotes were sprinkled here and there, but most of the cash market was in rebound mode Monday. The return of industrial load and Friday’s screen uptick of 4.1 cents provided much of the support, as weather fundamentals waxed and waned in different areas.

A majority of price gains were in single digits, but some points rose by up to 20 cents. The dime-plus advances were concentrated in the Midcontinent, where last week’s scorching heat was overstaying its welcome, and at Northeast citygates, where the underlying influences weren’t so obvious.

It was a “slow day for us,” commented a Gulf Coast marketer. There was better demand in the market area than in the production area, he noted. Utility loads were off a bit in the Gulf Coast, where high temperatures on either side of 90 degrees were not quite as hot as last week.

But a utility buyer found it hard to justify Northeast price hikes ranging from a little more than a dime to 20 cents. Yes, the regional temperature trend is upward, going from the high 70s in many sections Monday to the low 80s Tuesday, but that’s still relatively mild and below normal for mid-July, she said. The buyer was not aware of any pipeline constraints that would have helped push prices higher, but said the widening of basis spreads was covering variable transport costs from the Gulf by bigger margins than before.

A Florida utility buyer found it curious that not only did Florida Gas Transmission end an Overage Alert Day notice Saturday, “but they were complaining about too much gas in the system” over the weekend. Maybe in conjunction with Friday’s falling prices, producers had trouble finding a weekend home for their gas and just stuffed it into the pipe instead, she suggested. Sunshine State weather had gotten cooler Sunday, but temperatures were rising again Monday, the buyer said, hinting that another Overage Alert Day might be just around the corner.

The Northeast and Midwest are expected to continue slow warming trends through about midweek, but cold fronts are due in both areas as the weekend approaches. Very hot weather remains in the Southwest, but other parts of the West will be close to average until the Pacific Northwest begins to heat up later this week.

Citigroup’s Kyle Cooper said his final estimation for the upcoming storage report calls for a net injection between 78 Bcf and 88 Bcf. “From a comparison standpoint, the largest build recorded in this [comparable] week [historically] was…101 Bcf while the smallest was just 52,” Cooper added.

The tropical Atlantic basin was generally quiet but had a few disturbed areas, including a tropical wave moving through the northern and central Lesser Antilles, according to The Weather Channel. It might bring squally weather to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, but development seemed unlikely, TWC said.

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