Brent crude oil prices will average $116/bbl in the second quarter, and Henry Hub spot natural gas prices will average $3.83/MMBtu over the same period, though events in Ukraine have clouded the outlook, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

In the March edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the agency predicted a falling Brent oil price in the second half of this year (2H2022) and into 2023. The latest STEO modeled a 2H2022 oil price of $102 and a 2023 price of $89.

However, prognostication in the energy space is fraught with pitfalls in the best of times. Recent events have clearly made the task even more difficult, a fact EIA researchers acknowledged in a special statement released alongside this month’s STEO.

“We believe it is more...