Natural Gas Futures Slide Further on Production, Cooler Weather

  • August settles at $2.740, down 1.9 cents; September down 2.3 cents to $2.707
  • Production “remains the dominant narrative,” as market seems “more comfortable” entering winter with less in storage, says Bespoke
  • EIA’s latest production forecast likely to aid bears, says EBW’s Weissman
  • Electric transmission issues influencing spot prices in California, Desert Southwest: Genscape
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Heat, Storage Lend Support as Natural Gas Futures Steady; SoCal Spikes

  • August adds 0.7 cents to $2.759, September up 0.6 cents to $2.730
  • “There may not be much interest in sending” prices “below critical support” without further production growth, says Bespoke
  • With cooling in Midwest and East, “the natural gas markets are stating they want hotter”: NatGasWeather
  • Lower 48 production ticks up to 80.3 Bcf/d as demand expected to pull back, says Genscape
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Natural Gas Futures Continue Slide as Production Overrides Storage Deficits

  • August drops 4.5 cents to $2.752; September down 4.2 cents to $2.724
  • Strip shows market “more concerned about production levels sitting right at record highs” versus tighter power burns: Bespoke
  • Higher demand y/y during injection season has kept pace with production, but balance loosening, says RBN’s Nasta
  • Pacific Northwest “will be especially hot” in the week ahead: Genscape
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Natural Gas Futures Bears in Control Thanks to Production Growth; SoCal Retreats

  • August settles at $2.788, down 4.0 cents; September down 3.8 cents to $2.758
  • With prompt month challenging support “bears have an opportunity to keep the pressure on”: ICAP’s LaRose
  • Period of rapid production growth in June has “taken the market by surprise,” says RBN’s Nasta
  • SoCal Citygate down $2.51 d/d as demand eases following last week’s triple-digit temps
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Natural Gas Futures Slip as Heat Not Enough; SoCal Surges

  • August settles at $2.828, down 3.0 cents; September settles at $2.865, down 3.0 cents
  • Support at $2.80-2.82 likely to hold in near-term based on current fundamentals, says Bespoke
  • Markets likely need more heat in forecast for Northeast to justify higher prices: NatGasWeather
  • Maintenance could restrict northbound Permian flows Thursday, says Genscape
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EIA Build Tops Surveys as Natural Gas Futures Bounce to End Week; SoCal Prices Moderate

  • August adds 2.1 cents to settle at $2.858; September up 1.4 cents to $2.826
  • “We have seen power burns begin to tighten again at these lower price levels,” but production pressuring strip, says Bespoke
  • Storage levels unlikely to reach five-year average by end of season, says Jefferies
  • SoCal Citygate drops $2.87 d/d as heat wave expected to moderate slightly over weekend
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