Cooler Short-Term Trends Help Send Natural Gas Futures Lower; Waha Basis Strengthens

  • October Nymex down 2.8 cents to $2.795, November down 2.9 cents to $2.813
  • Guidance cooling in the short-term, balance picture “quite loose,” says Bespoke
  • Recent seasonal trends show futures could have more room to fall: ICAP’s LaRose
  • Waha differential to Henry Hub shrinks for second straight trading day
  • BREAKING: EIA reports a 63 Bcf injection into storage for the week ending Aug. 31
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Natural Gas Futures Fall as Gulf Coast Storm Seen Easing Demand

  • October down 9.3 cents to $2.823, November down 9.7 cents to $2.842
  • Gordon expected to hit Gulf Coast as hurricane Tuesday, seen reducing demand, shuts in supply
  • Hurricanes “used to be worth a dime in the other direction,” now “more of a demand story than a supply story,” says Powerhouse’s Levin
  • El Paso declares force majeure at W. TX compressor
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Weather Models Align to Send October Natural Gas Higher; Hotter Temps Lift Spot Gas in Some Regions

  • Longer-lasting heat sends October natural gas prices up another 4.2 cents
  • Weather models converge, show heat lingering past the first week of September
  • Already low storage inventories will likely take longer to refill given warmer outlooks
  • Spot gas prices strengthen in regions expected to see above-normal temperatures
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Hotter Medium-Range Outlooks Send October Natural Gas Higher Despite Bearish Storage Data; Spot Gas Slides

  • Nymex October gas futures contract gains on first day in prompt position
  • Weather models turn hotter for early September
  • Energy Information Administration shocks with 70 Bcf storage injection, but deficits not expected to significantly tighten for a few more weeks
  • Fast-moving cool front temporarily sends spot gas prices sliding
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Expiring September NatGas Contract Gets Late Boost from Buyers; Spot Gas Falls with Temps

  • Late buying spree sends Nymex September gas futures contract off the board 4 cents higher
  • Market observers say correction following three days of losses was to be expected, but downside risk still looms
  • Brief cooldown sends spot gas prices lower in most regions, while intensifying heat in California lifts SoCal Citygate
  • BREAKING: EIA reports a 70 Bcf storage injection for the week ending Aug. 24
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Nymex Futures Curve Softens Despite Significant Demand Growth Expected Before Year End

  • It’s another win for market bears as September natural gas notches a third day of losses
  • Heavy producer selling likely had a hand in Tuesday’s action as weakness seen in balance-of-2018 and calendar year 2019-2022 prices
  • FERC approval of feed gas for two liquified natural gas facilities, commissioning of another sets stage for strong structural demand growth before year end
  • Heat lifts Northeast spot gas prices, while Waha basis to Henry Hub continues to widen
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Natural Gas Bulls Throw in the Towel as September Slides Again; Heat Wave Lifts Spot Gas

  • $3 gas becoming less likely as summer heat currently forecast to wane before mid-September
  • Nymex September futures contract slides 4.1 cents ahead of expiration later this week
  • Traders expecting EIA storage report later this week to reflect build that is well above five-year average
  • Current heat wave in eastern half of United States drives up spot gas prices
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Traders Shrug Off Growing Storage Deficit as September Holds Steady

  • Nymex September nudges only marginally higher despite supportive storage report
  • Energy Information Administration reports 48 Bcf into storage inventories; deficit to five-year average grows by another 4 Bcf
  • Despite record-setting production, demand is the “elephant in the room” that some traders refuse to talk about
  • Cooler weather trends for late August pose downside risk for both Nymex and spot gas prices
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