If you think the power crisis this winter has been bad, waituntil the summer peak. California Independent System Operator CEOTerry Winter made a shocking presentation to the newgovernor-appointed ISO board recently, revealing the likelihood ofa massive 6,815 MW shortfall of power supply by June.

Should the shortfalls occur, millions of people could faceprolonged blackouts. The only possible solutions are conservationand significant demand side management, Winter said. The generationshortfall will be exacerbated by transmission system constraintsthat restrict the free flow of power to major demand centers.

Winters forecasts possible interruptions this month of 201 MWand then a temporary lull in March and April with no expectedcurtailments. Peak load in March and April is expected to be 32,203MW and 31,400 MW, respectively.

Starting in May, a shortfall of about 3,030 MW is expected asdemand peaks reach 41,977 MW with a reserve requirement of 2,553MW. Total available supply is projected to average 41,500 MW inMay. And then in June, the shortfall more than doubles with anexpected peak demand of 46,488 MW and a reserve requirement of2,974 MW. Total available resources during that month only grow to42,647 MW.

New capacity is expected to be adding during June (347 MW), July(1,574 MW), August (2,828 MW) and September (2,975 MW), buthydroelectric limitations are expected to continue. The state issuffering under severe import reductions, which will continue thissummer. Winter projects imports will be down 2,000 MW this summercompared to last summer. To make the situation worse, PG&E’sentire interruptible load has already been used up.

Winter estimates that California currently relies on 44,050 MWof total installed generation. However, a significant portion ofthat is not available during any one month because of forced orscheduled outages, hydro limitations or limitations on qualifyingfacilities.

Of that 44,050 MW, hydro represents about 23.4% or 10,300 MW;QFs, excluding wind, represent 19% or 8,200 MW; Wind represents0.1% or 200MW; peakers carry 4.4% of the load with 1,950 MW;thermal power such as natural gas fired generation represents 43.1%of the load with 19,000 MW; and nuclear represents 10% of thestate’s supply with 4,400 MW.

Rocco Canonica

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