Next Hurricane Season Should Be a Little Quieter
Hurricane guru William Gray of Colorado State University is predicting
a relatively quiet tropical weather season in the Atlantic and Caribbean
next year mainly because of a weak to moderate El Nino. Gray expects nine
named storms. Five storms would become hurricanes and two of those would
be major hurricanes.
That would make the 2001 season much less severe than the last five
very busy seasons, but still a bit busier than the period from 1970 to
1994. While tropical weather activity is expected to be diminished, Gray
said the likelihood of a major hurricane making landfall along the entire
U.S. coast next year is 63%. Gray's probability for a 2001 major hurricane
landfall from Florida to Brownsville, TX, is 36%, which is six percentage
points higher than the average this century. The probability for landfall
in the Caribbean is average, and the probability for landfall along the
East Coast is 43%, which is significantly higher than the 31% mark over
the course of the century.
Gray's final 2000 update in August called for 11 named storms, seven
hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The season ended on Nov. 30 with
15 named storms, eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes. Gray's full
report can be viewed here.
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