The coming winter season should have little effect on thenatural gas supplies in New England, which, according to oneofficial, now has the “best supply portfolio” ever.

Thomas M. Kiley, president of the New England Gas Association,said there were no warnings of gas shortages this winter at theforum held last week in Boston among federal and state and regionalofficials. Natural gas prices will be high as expected, he said,but there will be “plenty” of supply.

“The gas industry is allied and aligned,” said Kiley, whoreported that both his association and the American Gas Associationexpect a reliable supply of natural gas in New England through thewinter months, regardless of the temperature. He said that oilsupplies may be somewhat constrained, however.

New England’s natural gas supply, which represents about 18% ofthe primary energy consumption source in the region, is larger andmore diverse than ever. The natural gas infrastructure systemserving the region has grown by 25% since early 1999, with two newpipelines from Canada (Maritimes & Northeast and PortlandNatural Gas Transmission) and a significant new supply of liquefiednatural gas from the Caribbean (Trinidad), bringing additionalcapacity and supply sources. In addition, the local utilities saythey are on target to meet their storage requirement levels inadvance of the winter heating season.

The telltale signs of adequate supply are in place: most of NewEngland’s natural gas supplies come from U.S. supply regions,according to the New England Gas Association. Imports are playingan increasing role, though, rising from 11% of regional supply in1988 to about 45% 10 years later. The main trading partner isCanada, which provided 39% of the region’s gas supply then.

New England now has more than 33,000 miles of pipeline and main:transmission accounts for 1,777 miles and distribution accounts for31,410 miles. Daily pipeline capacity at the end of 1999 totaled3,152 MMcf/d, an increase of 13.5% from a year earlier. Thecapacity reflected expansions by existing systems — Algonquin,Tennessee, Iroquois, Vermont — and the new pipeline systems.

Despite the strong infrastructure, the region is still expectedto be in the same position as the rest of the country, with pricesfor energy commodities projected to be much higher than normal,reflecting what Kiley referred to as “national energy commoditymarket volatility.” For customers using natural gas in their homesin New England, the higher price is estimated to result in anincrease of 10%-20% in their bills on average this winter.

The forum, which included speakers from regional and nationalassociations, was presented by the New England Council and the NewEngland Governors’ Conference. A full report is expected soon.

The conference was called in response to a recent prediction bythe U.S. Department of Energy that with a “normal” heating season,natural gas prices likely will increase by as much as 50% thiswinter. Similar predictions have been made about the cost ofheating oil.

Carolyn Davis, Houston

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