Hurricane Forecast Cut, But Season Still Active
Renowned hurricane forecaster Dr. William Gray and his team of
soothsayers at Colorado State University have scaled back their
forecast made in early June for the 2000 hurricane season, but
still expect it to be more active than average.
Seven, rather than eight, hurricanes are expected now, and only
three --- not four --- of them are expected to be intense. In round
numbers, the August forecast is for three named storms, two
hurricanes, and one intense or major hurricane.
"Information obtained through July 2000 indicates that the
Atlantic hurricane season in 2000 is likely to be less active than
the four recent very busy years of 1995, 1996, 1998 and 1999.
However, total activity is expected to exceed the long term average
and is anticipated to be considerably more active than the mean for
the recent period of 1970 through 1994.
"We estimate that the 2000 season will have seven hurricanes
(average is 5.7), 11 named storms (average is 9.3), 55 named storm
days (average is 47), 30 hurricane days (average is 24), three
intense (category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.2), six intense
hurricane days (average is 4.7) and a Hurricane Destruction
Potential (HDP) of 90 (average is 71). Collectively, net tropical
cyclone activity in year 2000 is expected to be about 130% of the
The early August forecast update is close to Gray's Dec. 8, 1999
and April 7 forecasts, but somewhat lower than his recent June 7
update. "The forecast has been lowered slightly [because] June-July
global circulation conditions have not progressed quite as
favorably for hurricane enhancement than as we anticipated in our
early June forecast," Gray said.
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