Judging from the huge dip in futures prices last Wednesday, themarket apparently didn’t get wind of a new, more bullish hurricaneseason forecast by renowned hurricane prognosticator Dr. WilliamGray and his team of soothsayers at Colorado State University.

Gray raised his projections on named storms this season to 65from 55, upped the ante on hurricanes to eight from seven,predicted 35 hurricane days instead of his earlier April forecastof 25 and now believes there will be four rather than three intensehurricanes in the Atlantic Basin this season.

“Information obtained through May 2000 indicates that theAtlantic Hurricane Season in 2000 is likely to be slightly lessactive than the four recent very busy years of 1995, 1996, 1998 and1999,” Gray’s June update states. “However, total activity isexpected to exceed the long-term average and should be notably bemore active than the mean for the recent period of 1970 through1994.”

Gray gave five reasons for increasing his forecast: 1) a coolingof sea surface temperatures over the tropical and subtropicalAtlantic; 2) expected persistence of cool sea surface temperaturesin the equatorial Pacific region off the coast of South America (LaNina); 3) wind anomalies in the central Pacific and Atlantic thatare “very suggestive of an active season;” 4) the strong monsoonactivity that began ahead of schedule in Asia and Mexico and theincreased monsoonal flow from Central America to Africa; and 5) theeast-west positive temperature gradient across northwestern Africathat suggests an enhancement of this summer’s monsoon trough overthe region and stronger easterly wave activity across the tropicalAtlantic.

Rocco Canonica

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