In its latest study, the Gas Research Institute (GRI) predictednatural gas will dominate the market share among competing fuelsfor industrial energy demand over the next 15 years. Currently,industrial demand accounts for 45% of all gas consumption. Thestudy, released last week, was prepared by the GRI and Energy andEnvironmental Analysis Inc.

The Institute said gas will account for 35% of the totalindustrial energy demand through 2015. Gas consumption, driven byusage associated with stand-alone boilers, cogeneration and processheat, is expected to increase from 10.2 quadrillion Btus (quads) to13.3 quads in 2015. Petroleum will retain a 32% market share, theGRI said. Electricity consumption will increase from 3.5 quads to5.2 quads, but will still account for only 15% of total industrialenergy consumption.

Gas use in stand-alone boilers and cogeneration is expected tohave annual increases of 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively, over the15-year time period. An increase is also predicted for the processheat sector, from 52% in 1996 to 56% in 2015.

“The stability of the gas load and the projected strong growthin consumption serve as a solid foundation that is highlybeneficial to gas consumers in other sectors,” said Marie Lihn, theGRI project manager.

The driving force behind all these increases is industrialproduction, which is expected to jump 2.9% annually, more thandouble the expected growth in industrial sector energy consumptionof 1.3%. The chemical industry will continue to be the largestenergy user, the Institute predicted, as it will increase itsconsumption 3.2 quads from current levels to reach 10.8 quads in2015.

“Industrial production is the key driver of energy demand,” saidLihn. “The gap between industrial production and energy consumptionis a healthy indicator of the continuing trend toward greaterefficiency and conservation by American industry and changingmarket dynamics, including faster growth in less energy-intensiveindustry.”

Questions should be addressed to Kelly Murray, GRI BaselineCenter, Arlington, VA., at 703-526-7832. The study can be orderedfrom the GRI Document Fulfillment Center by fax at 630-406-5995.The study is $20 for GRI members and $25 for nonmembers.

John Norris

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