In a new analysis of power demand growth, Colorado-basedResource Data International (RDI) projects slightly over 186,000 MWof primarily gas-fired electric generating capacity will have to beadded by 2010 nationwide to meet burgeoning demand and to replaceretiring nuclear and non-nuclear capacity. The cost approaches $90billion.

That daunting task actually pales in comparison to other recentforecasts. For example at the California Independent EnergyProducers annual conference last month in Lake Tahoe, Calpineprojected the need for 1 million MW of new generation by 2015partly to replace 750,000 MW of existing capacity that is a majorsource of air pollution.

In its “Outlook for Power in the U.S., 1998,” RDI offers arelatively conservative estimate of the amount of generatingcapacity that will be retired over the next 11 years. RDI see atotal of 18,000 MW of nuclear and non-nuclear generating capacitybeing shelved. A total of 4,675 MW of non-nuclear capacity and13,244 MW of nuclear capacity is expected to be retired.

Six of the 15 NERC regions-Florida Reliability CoordinatingCouncil (FRCC), Mid-America Interconnected Network (MAIN), NewEngland Power Pool (NEPOOL), Northwest Power Area (NWPA),Southeastern Electric Reliability Council (SERC), and the SouthwestPower Pool (SPP)- need new generating capacity almost immediately.And by 2004, all the NERC regions will need capacity, RDI said.

“Although merchant power plant developers are currently focusingon only a few regions, most regions will present opportunitieswithin the next few years,” RDI said.

According to a separate RDI analysis, total U.S. merchant powerplants in operation, under construction or in development currentlytotal 49,462.5 MW, of which 21,000 MW is sited in the New EnglandPower Pool (NEPOOL). Another 9,195 MW of merchant power plantprojects are in the Western Systems Coordinating Council (WSCC).The remainder of the merchant plant activity (19,319 MW) isscattered in other parts of the country.

RDI cautioned there is the risk that the market for new capacityin any one region could become “overheated and trigger a boom-bustcycle. Such a cycle could result in power price decreases of asmuch as 20%.” For more information contact Chuck Van Note at RDI’sBoulder office, (303) 444-7788.

Theo Mullen

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