Don’t worry. Be happy. Or at least don’t fret over electricpower reliability on New Year’s Eve 1999. The initial word is infrom the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC), andthings don’t look as bad as some would have thought.

“NERC describes itself as ‘cautiously optimistic’ thatelectrical systems will be able to sustain reliable operationsthrough critical Y2K transition periods. That is certainly welcomenews,” Deputy Energy Secretary Elizabeth Moler told attendees atthe Department of Energy-National Association of Regulatory UtilityCommissioners electricity forum, held in Houston in conjunctionwith the 17th Congress of the World Energy Council.

“However, we share NERC’s view that the industry needs toaccelerate its efforts, particularly in the areas of testing andremediation of mission-critical systems that could be affected byY2K problems. We will continue to monitor the situation closely asNERC updates its surveys and reports.”

On May 1, the DOE asked NERC to coordinate and assess theelectric industry’s readiness for Y2K to ensure that steps arebeing taken to ensure reliability.

Moler made her remarks before a “small but hearty band of peopleinterested in things electric.” She described her worst-casescenario for the dawn of 2000: a New York City power failureoccurring in the middle of the fabled descent of the lighted ballheralding the new year. “My friends at Con Edison – the utilitythat serves Times Square – assure me they have thought of this,”Moler said.

Gerry Cauley, NERC’s Y2K coordinator, presented highlights ofthe NERC report to the DOE. “We feel the risks are there. They’rereal, but the risks are manageable.” In its survey of the electricpower industry, the NERC had participation reaching 75%, includingresponses from 160 of 200 bulk electric operating entities. Amongareas critical to success of a Y2K transition are project planningand management, nuclear and non-nuclear generation, andtelecommunications.

Much of the work to prepare for 2000 has been completed, butmuch remains to be done. NERC recommends accelerating efforts. Sofar, about 87% of the inventory of potential problems is completed.This figure is misleading, Cauley said, as it includes someentities with very little accomplished, which brings down thefigure for the majority who have more work done. About 65% ofassessment work is completed, and about 28% of work to replacecomponents or otherwise fix identified problems has been finished.The inventory is expected to be completed by Sept. 30, andassessments are expected to be completed by Oct. 31. Testing is tobe finished by May 31, 1999, and implementation is to complete bythe end of June 1999.

The electric power industry has to be concerned not just withits own systems but with those of the telecommunications,transportation, and gas transportation industries as well. Reactingto the NERC report, the Edison Electric Institute (EEI) played downthe industry’s reliance on computers. “The U.S. electric supply anddelivery systems are not heavily reliant on computers andelectronic controls,” EEI said. “Those operations that do rely oncomputer systems can be manually operated in emergencies – andoften are during power outages arising from storms or mechanicalproblems.”

Cauley said the operations of power marketers were not examinedas part of the survey. Power marketers could indeed be asked tosuspend some activity during the leap to 2000, he conceded. He saidmarketers may be asked to firm up transmission arrangements inadvance of New Year’s Eve. “I think an extreme measure would be a24-hour period without new electronic transactions. That’s theworst case.”

Joe Fisher, Houston

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