If 1998 Atlantic hurricane predictions by faculty at ColoradoState University are correct, the four-year period of 1995 through1998 will have been the most active consecutive four years forhurricanes on record. This year’s Atlantic hurricane activity ispredicted to be “appreciably more than 1997 but less than theunusually active 1995 and 1996 seasons.

Still, 1998 should be significantly more active than the averageof the generally suppressed hurricane seasons during the last 25years and especially in comparison to the particularly quietseasons of 1991-1994,” reads a recent forecast from theuniversity’s Department of Atmospheric Science. Predicted for thisyear’s season are 10 named storms, 50 storm days, six hurricanes,25 hurricane days, two intense hurricanes, four intense hurricanedays and a hurricane destruction potential of 70.

A named storm is a hurricane or tropical storm. A hurricane is atropical cyclone with sustained low-level winds of 74 miles perhour or greater. A hurricane day is a measure of hurricaneactivity, one unit of which occurs as four six-hour periods duringwhich a tropical cyclone is observed or estimated to have hurricaneintensity winds. An intense hurricane reaches a sustained low-levelwind of at least 111 miles per hour at some point in its lifetime.This constitutes a “category 3” or “major” hurricane. An intensehurricane day is four six-hour periods during which a hurricane hascategory 3 intensity or higher. Hurricane destruction potential isa measure of a hurricane’s potential for wind and storm surgedestruction defined as the sum of the square of a hurricane’smaximum wind speed for each six-hour period of its existence.

On Friday, Colorado State will issue a report on the statisticalprobability of U.S. coastal landfall of intense (category 3-4-5)hurricanes for 1998.

Joe Fisher, Houston

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