The futures market began the week in much the same fashion thatit concluded last week-quiet, range-bound trading where neitherbull nor bear could make much of an impact. After notching up to a$2.23 high late in the session Monday, the August contract filteredlower to settle at $2.207, a 2-cent gain for the day.

Traders’ opinions remain mixed as to where the market will trendfrom here. Despite being bullish in the long run, Tom Saal ofMiami-based Pioneer Futures does not rule a retest of support at$2.10. On the upside, he feels the number the bulls need to beat is$2.25. Saal maintains that the most surprising thing about themarket right now is its lack of volatility. “The Commitments ofTraders report showed a huge change in positions in this marketover the past couple weeks. Funds reversed their positions [long toshort] more than 50,000 and commercial traders were right therebuying up contracts. A year ago a change of that magnitude wouldhave brought about a big price move, but now it could barely movethe market 20 cents.” To what can that be attributed? “The orderlynature with which the funds have liquidated their longs shows thatnatural gas is starting to exhibit characteristics of a maturingmarket,” he reasoned.

New Mexico-based Kase and Company agrees with the bottom of hisprice range-$2.10, but gives the market a 50% chance of testing$2.32 in the short-term. In the long term, they favor an eventualmove higher.

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