The potential for new natural gas-fired generating capacity overthe next decade is as much as double that of some initial industryforecasts, according to a new study commissioned by the INGAAFoundation.

The study found that the potential for gas-fired generatingadditions by 2007 ranged from about 97,000 Mw to 143,000 Mw. Thiswas substantially greater than the North American ElectricityReliability Council’s (NERC) projection that gas will fuel 62,900Mw, or 66% of the net generation additions that are expected bythen.

NERC forecasts that gas use in power generation will grow at 3%a year – from 3.3 Tcf/year in 1998 to 4.4 Tcf/year in 2007 – whilethe Energy Information Administration sees demand rising to 5.7 Tcfby 2007.

Gas-fired generation is “uniquely suited” to meet the growingelectricity market, according to the study, “Reducing ElectricTransmission Constraints with Gas-Fired Power Generation.” In fact,it said new gas-fired plants could help relieve electricitytransmission constraints and capacity shortages that are expectedto only worsen in the years ahead.

“New gas-fired combined cycle units can be built in or near[electric] load centers experiencing capacity problems. Theircompact size, environmental benefits and quick construction timesmake gas the ideal fuel to meet growing consumer demand forelectricity. And gas pipelines, which are integrated and canprovide transportation service to a range of gas markets, alreadyserve those areas,” the study noted.

And because gas-fired plants can be built near urban loadcenters, the need to transmit power between regions would beminimized and, therefore, congestion would be eased on the system,the study contends. “Congestion and bottlenecks…often occur as aresult of the need to transmit electricity from distant generatingunits to urban load centers.”

The role of gas-fired plants will be critical given that only6,600 miles of new power transmission above 230 kV are planned overthe next decade, representing a 4% increase, and generationreserve margins in many of NERC’s 10 reliability regions areexpected to fall below historical levels by 2007, the INGAA studysaid.

In light of the expected rise in power demand, NERC believessignificant shortfalls in generation capacity potentially couldoccur in most of its regions over the next decade. The biggestshortfall would be in the Western Systems Coordinating Council(17,200 Mw). This would be followed by the Mid-Atlantic AreaCouncil (7,100 Mw); the Electric Reliability Council of Texas(5,500 Mw); the Southwest Power Pool (5,400 Mw); the East CentralArea Reliability Coordination Agreement (4,400 Mw) and theMid-Continent Area Power Pool (3,500 Mw).

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