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CERI: 3-Fold Rise in Gas Generation by 2020

CERI: 3-Fold Rise in Gas Generation by 2020

Opening up the electric market to retail trade in Canada and the U.S. "will reinforce the trend towards greater use of natural gas in power generation resulting from the development of combined cycle gas turbine power plants," according to George Given, author of a new study by the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI).

The study, "The Impact of Electricity Restructuring on the Natural Gas Industry," projects that under a full retail wheeling scenario, gas for generation in Canada will rise from about 200 Bcf in 2000 to 559 Bcf in 2010 and to approximately 1327 Bcf in 2020. U.S. consumption for power generation is expected to reach about 10.9 Tcf by 2020, or three times the current level.

The areas seeing the greatest generation demand growth are central Canada, New England and the East North Central U.S. In other areas greater competition will drive generators to become more efficient and decrease the use of older gas-oil steam plants that are more costly to operate.

The CERI study predicts electricity prices will fall in both countries over much of the forecast period, although Canadian prices will begin to rise from 2015 to 2020.

Meanwhile, there will be no shortfall of gas supplies. Given said Canadian production is projected to reach 7.7 Tcf in 2010 and 8.7 Tcf by 2020. "Cross border flows rise from 8.69 Bcf/d in 1998 to 12.18 Bcf/d in 2010. Gross export volumes peak in 2015 at 13.4 Bcf/d and start to gradually decline by 2020."

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