CERI: 3-Fold Rise in Gas Generation by 2020
Opening up the electric market to retail trade in Canada and the
U.S. "will reinforce the trend towards greater use of natural gas
in power generation resulting from the development of combined
cycle gas turbine power plants," according to George Given, author
of a new study by the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI).
The study, "The Impact of Electricity Restructuring on the
Natural Gas Industry," projects that under a full retail wheeling
scenario, gas for generation in Canada will rise from about 200 Bcf
in 2000 to 559 Bcf in 2010 and to approximately 1327 Bcf in 2020.
U.S. consumption for power generation is expected to reach about
10.9 Tcf by 2020, or three times the current level.
The areas seeing the greatest generation demand growth are
central Canada, New England and the East North Central U.S. In
other areas greater competition will drive generators to become
more efficient and decrease the use of older gas-oil steam plants
that are more costly to operate.
The CERI study predicts electricity prices will fall in both
countries over much of the forecast period, although Canadian
prices will begin to rise from 2015 to 2020.
Meanwhile, there will be no shortfall of gas supplies. Given
said Canadian production is projected to reach 7.7 Tcf in 2010 and
8.7 Tcf by 2020. "Cross border flows rise from 8.69 Bcf/d in 1998
to 12.18 Bcf/d in 2010. Gross export volumes peak in 2015 at 13.4
Bcf/d and start to gradually decline by 2020."
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