A FERC quarterly update of various regional efforts to coordinate natural gas and electric markets shows that the New England and Northeast generation markets will continue to be the most gas-dependent during the upcoming heating season.

“Overall, in the short term specifically for the coming winter the concerns do seem to focus on the New England and Northeast region,” said a staff member.

Earlier in the week FERC passed an interim order that would make it easier for Northeast generators to substitute oil if natural gas was in short supply or was too high-priced. The Commission ratified the petition of ISO-NE, which cited some natural gas shortfalls last winter.

ISO-NE had concluded that if the coming winter (which is predicted to be colder than normal) comes anywhere near winter of 2003-2004, the region’s coldest in the last 10 years, New England would need about 2.4 million MWh from oil-fired generation, or 4.2 million barrels of oil.

The interim order is effective Sept. 6 through Feb. 28 and provides incentives for oil-fired or dual-fueled generators to stockpile oil supplies.

The Northeast has become heavily gas-reliant and preliminary estimates call for the Northeast to replace as much as 6.2-9.8 GW of coal-fired capacity with gas by 2015.

The New England States Committee on Electricity Gas-Electric Focus Group recommended potential short-term supply reliability solutions, including dual-fuel generation, demand-response measures, and the seasonal purchase of liquefied natural gas. In the long-term, it recommended the construction of a cross-regional pipeline that would add 1.2 Bcf/d of capacity, according to the quarterly update on gas-electric coordination efforts, which was released Thursday [AD12-12] .

A cross-regional pipeline would provide twice the net benefits to New England consumers than would firm-based Canadian energy imports,

In the Mid-Atlantic region, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) said many members of the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America, Natural Gas Supply Association and American Gas Association continue to be involved in the Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC) in which PJM is leading the study as the principal investigator.

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) could experience problems in the mid-term. MISO’s coordination task force in August presented the preliminary results of its Phase III gas-electric interdependency analysis, which showed that recent pipeline capacity additions have contributed to a decrease in the number of days in which capacity would have been unavailable for the majority of the MISO-region pipelines.”

The Southwest Power Pool Gas-Electric Coordination Task Force has conducted a gas-fired generator survey, held training sessions with gas pipeline and marketer personnel, and implemented a visual pipeline mapping tool, according to the quarterly update. ERCOT continued its regional coordination efforts in the third quarter as well, FERC said.

FERC noted that it has received applications for two pipeline capacity expansions to enhance gas-electric coordination: Eastern Shore’s White Oak Lateral project in Kent County, DE, to add 55.2 MMcf/d of transportation capacity for Calpine Energy Services LP for use in the Garrison Energy Center, a proposed 309 MW combined cycle power plant; and Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line’s Mobile Bay South III Expansion Project to add 225 MMcf/d of firm transportation capacity to serve Southern Company Services Inc. and PowerSouth Energy Cooperative, both of which operate a substantial portion of gas-fired generation in the Southeast and Florida (see Daily GPI, July 23).