U.S. policymakers should consider approving 1.5-2 Bcf/d of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity each year, which would avoid rocking the domestic gas market and be a pace that shale gas producers could keep in step with, analysts at Bernstein Research said in a note.

“We believe this level represents an amount of shale gas production growth that can be achieved with a reasonable, but not too high, price signal that would be palatable to consumers and producers alike,” Bernstein’s Bob Bracket and colleagues wrote. “In addition, approving 1.5-2 Bcf/d of export capacity (which would likely take about three to four years to build) implies that only 5-8 Bcf/d of export growth would be in the queue at any point in time, allowing the government to monitor price impacts as exports layer-in (and apply brakes if needed).”

Bernstein said the United States will see about 6-7 Bcf/d of LNG exports by 2020, adding that there is upside risk to the estimate given that 5.6 Bcf/d of exports have already been approved by the U.S. Department of Energy and another 20 Bcf/d or so of export applications are in various stages of the approval process.

In order to determine whether the exploration and production industry could keep up with the incremental demand of such a level of exports, the Bernstein analysts looked to the past. The Barnett, Haynesville and Marcellus shales all achieved production increases on the order of 6 Bcf/d. “We note that the Haynesville added 6 Bcf/d in the space of 24 months (from July 2009 to July 2011),” the analysts said.

“Production from the Marcellus has been expanding at a comparable pace. Historically, in other words, the industry has demonstrated the capacity to deliver incremental supplies similar to that required at an accelerated pace.”