Production of oil, natural gas and condensate from the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas increased dramatically from 2010 to 2011, according to a new study of the play and its impact on the region. And there's more to come, thanks in large part to the attractive economics offered by the Eagle Ford's oil and liquids-rich gas.
From 2010 to 2011:
The economic impact study of the Eagle Ford -- produced by the Center for Community and Business Research at The University of Texas at San Antonio Institute for Economic Development (see Shale Daily,May 10) -- focused on the impacts of 14 producing counties that are of particular interest in the Eagle Ford Shale development area: Atascosa, Bee, DeWitt, Dimmit, Frio, Gonzales, Karnes, La Salle, Live Oak, Maverick, McMullen, Webb, Wilson and Zavala.
The study made projections for future Eagle Ford production using three price assumption scenarios: low, medium and high for each of the years 2012 through 2021.
In all three scenarios the 2012 assumption for gas is $2.96/Mcf at the Henry Hub and $100.64/bbl for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude. In the low-price scenario prices trend upward to $3.07/Mcf for gas and drop to $63.24/bbl by 2021. In the moderate-price scenario prices trend upward to $4.11/Mcf for gas and $130.45/bbl for WTI. And in the high-price scenario, gas prices climb to $5.76/Mcf and oil prices rise to $169.21/bbl by 2021.
In 2021, using the moderate price estimate (Henry Hub gas at $4.11/Mcf and WTI crude oil at $130.45/bbl), Eagle Ford production is projected to be:
A total of 25,104 new oil and gas wells are projected to be drilled over the years 2012 to 2021 in the moderate scenario, with a low estimate of 13,537 and a high estimate of 34,039.
"Indeed, activity in the Eagle Ford Shale has expanded at an unprecedented rate, and the increase in production from 2010 to 2011 has been accompanied by equally significant increases in permitting, well drilling and completion, residential and commercial construction, pipeline construction, and numerous other support activities," the study said.