With the market turning its attention to the 10:30 a.m. ET release of weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data, which is expected to be near the five-year average, October natural gas futures were trading slightly lower Thursday morning at around $2.794/MMBtu.

Major surveys this week showed the market expecting EIA to report a storage build in the low 60s Bcf for the week ending Aug. 31, compared to the five-year average 65 Bcf injection and a 60 Bcf build recorded in the year-ago period.

A Reuters survey of traders and analysts on average predicted a 62 Bcf build. Responses ranged from 51 Bcf to 69 Bcf. A Bloomberg survey showed a median 61 Bcf injection based on 12 estimates, with a range of 52 Bcf to 69 Bcf. Intercontinental Exchange EIA Financial Weekly Index futures settled Wednesday at a build of 64 Bcf.

Last week, EIA reported a 70 Bcf build that surprised to the bearish side of consensus.

“It was hotter than normal over most of the country” during this week’s EIA report period, “especially Texas, the Ohio valley and the Northeast,” said NatGasWeather, which said its model is calling for a 61-62 Bcf injection. “Cooler exceptions were across the Northwest to northern Plains.”

As for overnight guidance, NatGasWeather said it spotted no major changes to the outlook.

National demand should decline “over the next several days as cooler temperatures with areas of showers cover large stretches of the eastern and southern U.S., aided by a cool front feeding off remnants from” former Tropical Storm Gordon.

“…High pressure is expected to return across much of the country as next week progresses for a swing to slightly stronger demand, although coverage of 90s will still be primarily confined to portions of the southern U.S. and West,” the firm said. “With summer heat expected to continue fizzling after Sept. 16-17, weather patterns are quickly becoming neutral to bearish with much larger weekly storage builds to come in the weeks ahead.”

Noting that front month support at $2.82 failed Wednesday and that the January contract dropped below $3, EBW Analytics Group CEO Andy Weissman said natural gas futures appear destined to continue on the downward trajectory established over the last two sessions.

“After steep losses during the past two trading sessions, natural gas could bounce up and down for the next few days before it heads lower,” Weissman said. “This week’s downward move, however, most likely has sealed natural gas’ fate for the remainder of fall.

“With anemic spreads, massive amounts of new pipeline capacity about to come online, the likelihood that October and November space heating demand will be mild, and the potential for four successive 100-plus Bcf injections in late September and early October, the likelihood of further downward price pressure is high.”

October crude oil futures were trading about 15 cents higher Thursday morning at around $68.87/bbl, while October RBOB gasoline was trading about 1.3 cents higher at around $1.9783/gal.