September natural gas was set to open Thursday a fraction of a cent lower at $2.945 as the market appeared poised to hit the brakes on the unexpected rally that sent prices above two technical hurdles in the past two days.

Still, traders were waiting with bated breath for the Energy Information Administration’s storage report, which is due to be released at 10:30 a.m. ET. Estimates for this week’s report for the week ending Aug. 3 were wide ranging, given the recent string of substantial misses, in the mid-30s Bcf to mid-60s Bcf, with the average pointing to a build in the high 40s Bcf.

Kyle Cooper of IAF Advisors projected a 47 Bcf build, EBW Analytics expected a 48 Bcf build, Genscape Inc. estimated a 50 Bcf build and a Bloomberg survey had a range of 35 Bcf to 64 Bcf, with a median 47 Bcf injection. The IntercontinentalExchange settled at a 48 Bcf build.

Genscape said compared to degree days and normal seasonality over the five-year average, a 50 Bcf-plus injection would appear tight by (0.4) Bcf/d and would do little to shrink the running year-on-year and year-on-five-year inventory deficits.

Power burns were estimated to have averaged 35.6 Bcf/d, helping maintain this summer’s spot as the five-year leader of power burns this summer-to-date, Genscape said. Mexican exports averaged 4.8 Bcf/d (including a 5 Bcf/d day) and liquefied natural gas sendout averaged 3.3 Bcf/d.

As of July 27, inventories stood at 2,308 Bcf, 688 Bcf below year-ago levels and 565 Bcf below the five-year average.

If Thursday’s injection is well below consensus, the September contract could climb further, EBW said. The more likely result, however, is that this week’s injection will be at or above consensus, it said.

“With the end of summer in sight, if this occurs, futures are likely to fall significantly, with the potential for an even steeper drop later this month as summer weather fades,” EBW CEO Andy Weissman said.

The recent strength in the futures strip indicates the run higher in prices was driven primarily by storage concerns, according to Bespoke Weather Services, meaning that an EIA print that misses to the bearish side or even hits its slightly higher 50 Bcf estimate could ease some concern.

“We would expect a 50+ Bcf print to push prices back to $2.90, though it is unclear just how large the print would need to be to entirely reverse the rally through next week,” Bespoke chief meteorologist Jacob Meisel said.

Weather continues to play a mixed role but with cooler risks across the South, this limits cash prices from moving much higher, he said. Weather models overnight Wednesday reversed some of the cooler trends seen in the afternoon. The South, however, trended even cooler even as Bespoke saw more intense heat likely to be sustained across the Midwest into the Northeast.

“There look to be a couple periods with cooler risks over the next two weeks where cooler weather will try and dive down into the Midwest and pull cooling demand back toward average,” Meisel said. The weather forecaster said the models may trend stronger with those, which would limit how elevated gas-weighted degree days (GWDD) can get.

Meanwhile, heat in the West and across parts of the North keep GWDDs consistently slightly above average even as a cool South limits its impact. Still, Bespoke sees the potential for a more pronounced return of cool risks into week 3.

Crude oil futures were trading nearly 10 cents higher at $67.02, while RBOB Gasoline futures were trading nearly flat at $2.0181.