August natural gas futures were set to open Tuesday slightly higher at around $2.730/MMBtu, with forecasters noting generally small adjustments to guidance overnight as the storage picture continued to lend support.

Overnight weather guidance was trending cooler toward the end of July, according to Bespoke Weather Services.

The data suggested “a bit more staying power of some cooler weather across the center of the country, limiting how quickly” gas-weighted degree days (GWDD) “would rise back above average,” Bespoke said. “However, we still expect solid cooling demand by late in the first week of August that will help keep GWDDs above average over the next two weeks while widening the difference between this year and last year.

“We still see risk skewed to the hotter side into Week 3 as well, likely softening the impact of some of the short-term cooler trends and minor GWDD losses.”

Bespoke said firm support for the August contract around $2.70-2.72 could present slight upside risk for prices.

The firm said it saw “little reason for prices to move lower,” as tight Energy Information Administration data and storage levels remain “far below average, though overnight forecast trends did show enough cooling so as to increase our injection expectations into early August.”

Forecaster Radiant Solutions on Tuesday noted generally minor adjustments to both its six- to 10-day and 11-15 day forecasts.

“Changes are small” in the six- to 10-day, “leaning hotter in the Southwest but cooler in the Rockies,” Radiant said. “Otherwise, this remains an anomalously hot period in the West where agove and much above normal temperatures are steady in coverage. The only exception is in the Pacific Northwest, where much aboves early on give way to temperatures that are closer to normal late.

“A trough over the Midwest will slowly deepen toward the South by mid-period, pulling in a coverage of belows with it. The trough will enhance moisture levels along the East Coast, resulting in near normal temperatures there.”

In the 11-15 day, Radiant observed “no major changes,” with the outlook still featuring “above normal temperatures in the West, Texas and Northeast and generally near normal readings from the Midwest to the South.”

From a technical standpoint, natural gas bulls need to mount a rally — and soon — to prevent prices from continuing to move lower, according to ICAP Technical Analysis analyst Brian LaRose.

“We need to see natural gas carve out an immediate bottom, then surge up and through” $2.786, LaRose said. “That is the only way to salvage the case for some sort of bottom. Fail to reverse and we would expect the slide to continue. Beneath $2.704 the next step down is $2.670. After that we have $2.642, then $2.610-2.600. We’re more interested in what the September contract does at this point.”

September crude oil was set to open about 37 cents higher at around $68.26/bbl, while August RBOB gasoline was trading about a penny higher at $2.1014/gal.