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Weather Models Still Warming; October Called 2 Cents Higher

October natural gas is expected to open 2 cents higher Tuesday morning at $2.95 as overnight weather models warmed. Oil markets overnight fell.

"[Tuesday's] six- to 10-day forecast is even warmer than yesterday's forecast for much of the central and eastern US," said forecaster WSI Corp. in a morning report. "The West is much cooler.” Continental United States (CONUS) population-weighted cooling degree days (CDD) “are up 1.2 to 18.4.” CONUS gas-weighted heating degree days “are down 1.2 to 11.7, which are 17.9 below average.

"Overall forecast confidence is average, and the forecast has room to deviate in either direction given the model spread. The West has some cooler potential, while the central and northern U.S. has some warmer potential based on the ECMWF.”

Traders, however, are discounting any significant impact from near term temperature outlooks. "While consensus of temperature views is taking a turn back toward warmer than normal patterns following a cool down during the next few days, we are emphasizing that such temps don't spur much CDD accumulation during the fall period," said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates in a morning report to clients.

"As a result, updated weather views appear incapable of pushing values much above the pivotal $3 level, at least as far as the October contract is concerned. And although Thursday's Energy Information Administration report could indicate a reduction in the supply surplus of almost 30 Bcf given last week's hot temps, such a figure appears well discounted with any surprises out of the release more apt to prove bearish than bullish in our view.

"In the background, the market remains pressured by this month's unexpectedly large lift in production that will be boosting seasonal storage injections next month to some extent. “Meanwhile, the physical market at Henry Hub is maintaining a heavy feel amidst the upcoming cool down across most of the Midcontinent region."

In overnight Globex trading November crude oil fell 40 cents to $51.82/bbl and November RBOB gasoline shed 2 cents to $1.6523/gal.

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