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Selling Interest Waning, Trader Says; September Called 3 Cents Higher

September natural gas is expected to open 3 cents higher Wednesday morning at $2.85 as traders study indicators showing a lack of selling. Overnight oil markets were mixed.

Gas buyers needing to purchase supply for power generation across the broad PJM footprint are not likely to have much in the way of renewables to work with for the next few days. "Seasonably cool temperatures expected through the weekend," said WSI Corp. in its morning report to clients. "Weak high pressure will provide a window of fair conditions [Wednesday].

"Temperatures will run seasonably cool, [and] a low pressure system is anticipated to push across the area tomorrow into the weekend, producing clouds and showers. "Weak and variable flow will limit wind gen expectations over the next few days. Peak output may hit 1-2GW. Another storm later this week may boost prospects again."

Tom Saal, vice president at FCStone Latin America in Miami, in his work with Market Profile sees the market at or near a turning point. "[We have seen] horizontal pricing action over the last seven trading days, and one of those days was a 'non-trend day'. This infers participating trader selling has slowed down, and the next vertical price move could be higher," he said in a morning note to clients.

Market Profile is a breakout trading system and Saal expects the market to test Tuesday's value area at $2.82 to $2.79. Saal pegs the initial balance, or breakout parameters, at $2.828 to $2.770, and once the market breaks above or below those levels traders should look for trading objectives at $2.857 or $2.741. Then expect the market to test a second value area at $2.983 to $2.947, according to Saal.

In its 8 a.m. EDT report the National Hurricane Center reported that Tropical Storm Franklin had passed over the Yucatan Peninsula and was heading west towards Veracruz. It was located 195 miles east northeast of Veracruz, Mexico, and was up to 70 mph winds. It was heading to the west at 13 mph. Some onshore production could be affected.

In overnight Globex trading September crude oil rose 37 cents to $49.54/bbl and September RBOB gasoline dropped a penny to $1.6165/gal.

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