Daily GPI / Markets / Markets / NGI All News Access

Weather Outlooks Remain Soft as Matthew Strengthens; November Seen 3 Cents Lower

November natural gas is set to open 3 cents lower Friday morning at $2.93 as traders focus on at least another weak of light demand. Overnight oil markets fell.

"The latest midday weather data hasn't brought any surprises and maintains a warm overall pattern through the first week of October, but then with cooling across northern and eastern U.S. after Oct. 8th," said Natgasweather.com in a noon Thursday update.

"Across the northern U.S., a weather system has stalled over the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions, with showers and slightly cool temperatures where highs will only reach the 60s to lower 70s. Over the West, high pressure is losing ground as Pacific weather systems push onshore with showers. With summer heat essentially over besides portions of the far southern U.S., the markets continue to wait on colder Canadian air to arrive. We believe this will begin happening during the second week of October, ending the current period of very weak natgas demand, some of the lightest this year."

Gas buyers across the MISO footprint having to purchase incremental supplies for power generation over the weekend aren't expected to have a lot of wind generation to offset gas purchases. WSI Corp. in a Friday morning forecast said, "Surface low pressure associated with a broad upper-level low over the Ohio Valley will lead to variable cloud cover, widely scattered showers, breezy and cool conditions across eastern areas during the next couple of days. Otherwise, weak high pressure will promote fair weather.

"Temperatures will vary in the 60s, 70s and 80s, warmest across Entergy. High pressure will nose in behind this system during Sunday into early next week. This should result in partly sunny and a warming trend. High temps may rebound into the 70s and 80s. Relatively light wind generation is expected today into the weekend. Output is forecast to drop down to 2-5 GW. A developing southerly wind will cause wind gen to ramp up late Sunday into early next week. Output is forecast to top out 8-9+ GW late Tuesday.

In its 8 a.m. EDT Friday report the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Hurricane Matthew was 520 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and was heading to the west-southwest at 14 mph. Winds had increased to 105 mph, and NHC predicted that it would make a sharp turn north when it reaches the western Caribbean toward the eastern end of Cuba.

In overnight Globex trading November crude oil fell 3 cents to $47.80/bbl and November RBOB gasoline eased fractionally to $1.4394/gal.

Recent Articles by Bill Burson

Comments powered by Disqus